The RSF’s defeat will not end Sudan’s war but merely fragment it
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The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) regained control of several towns along the Export Road this summer, prompting military leadership to pursue a total defeat of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Conversely, the RSF and its ally, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North, seized control of Kurmuk and Geisan in the Blue Nile state during mid-August. The conflict is characterized by shifting alliances and fragmentation, involving the SAF, the RSF, and various semi-autonomous groups like the Justice and Equality Movement and the Sudan Liberation Movement. The failure to integrate these irregular factions into the formal military has resulted in a proliferation of armed groups that maintain their own political leverage and command structures.
Consequences
A potential RSF defeat may not conclude the conflict but instead fracture the country into numerous smaller, localized wars. The ongoing integration of defectors and independent militias into the SAF risks transferring the RSF's structural weaknesses and lack of unified command to the state military.
Sources
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