Researcher warns Indian intelligence activities could risk miscalculation with China

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Researcher Zhao Ruoxi of the Macau University of Science and Technology published a paper on July 31 analyzing India's intelligence operations against China between 2020 and 2026. Zhao argued that India expanded its intelligence-gathering toolkit—including space-based reconnaissance, drone surveillance, and cyber intelligence—following a 2020 border clash in the Galwan Valley that resulted in 20 Indian and four Chinese troop deaths. The paper stated that Indian intelligence agencies increasingly framed routine Chinese activities as threats, a shift that the researcher warned could lead to Indian miscalculation and unilateral countermeasures.

Consequences

The researcher warned that the continued framing of routine Chinese activities as threats may heighten the risk of New Delhi taking unilateral countermeasures against Beijing. This intelligence-driven approach follows a period of souring relations between the two nations since the 2020 border confrontation.

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