Italy's population to shrink by 4 million by 2050, ISTAT reports

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Italy's national statistics bureau, ISTAT, reported on August 31 that the country's population is projected to decrease from 58.9 million in 2025 to 55 million by 2050, with a further decline to 45.8 million by 2080. This demographic shift was driven by a steady decline in births, which reached their lowest level since 1861 last year, alongside a projected rise in deaths as the post-war baby boom generation ages. Despite Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s 2022 mandate to prioritize birth rate growth, ISTAT data indicated that the proportion of citizens aged 65 and over is expected to reach 34.5% by 2050.

Consequences

The shrinking pool of working-age individuals—projected to fall from 63.4% to 55.3%—will likely undermine the sustainability of Italy's economy and welfare system. Furthermore, the demographic decline is expected to be geographically uneven, with southern Italy facing the steepest population losses.

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