Iran considering policy shifts in response to economic sanctions
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On Aug. 19, Iranian Central Bank Gov. Abdolnaser Hemmati reported that Iran’s oil exports had nearly ceased due to a U.S. naval blockade and that industrial access to foreign currency had dropped by 30 percent compared to the previous year. On the same day, President Donald Trump announced a new campaign of "Economic Warfare and Isolation" against Iran, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that these measures, combined with the blockade, were intended to potentially render a large-scale military operation unnecessary. Following the February 28 killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and top military commanders by U.S. and Israeli strikes, Iranian political and military figures advocated for a shift from their traditional "strategic patience" doctrine toward a more offensive military approach. This proposed shift aimed to increase the costs for the United States to maintain the blockade, as Iranian officials concluded that their previous pattern of limited responses had failed to prevent full-scale conflict.
Consequences
Iran is likely to move away from its historical strategy of limited responses and proxy-led conflict in favor of a more aggressive military posture against the United States and its regional interests. This transition suggests an increased probability of direct, escalatory actions by Tehran intended to force a change in the U.S. policy of economic warfare and naval containment.
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